2026 Same-Store Sales Possibly 3% to 5%
March 2026 – Net sales for the five companies that comprise the Hilco Parts Index were $20.3 billion for the final quarter of 2025, a decrease of more than 10% from the prior quarter. This happens every year at this time, but it has little to do with the seasonality of the industry. The fourth quarter does tend to be a bit leaner than the other three quarters because of the number of holidays, but the impact is minimal. Instead, most of the apparent decrease can be attributed to the non-standard fiscal calendar at Autozone which is based on three 12-week quarters and one 16-week quarter. As it turns out, the current quarter only includes 12 weeks of revenue from AutoZone compared to 16 weeks in the prior quarter.
By focusing on trailing twelve-month (TTM) data, the Hilco Parts Index eliminates any distortions related to the use of non-standard fiscal calendars and to any influence (albeit slight) of seasonal trends. For the twelve months ending with the fourth quarter of 2025, net sales related to the Hilco Parts Index were $83.9 billion, an increase of 0.8% from the year-earlier period. The increase would have been greater if not for the closure of more than 500 stores by Advance Auto Parts (Advance). Advance is entering the third year of a major restructuring plan that began with the installation of a new leadership team, the streamlining of its distribution operation, and an investment in about 100,000 new part numbers, and the plan seems to be working. After three consecutive years of negative results, Advance has finally returned to positive same-store sales growth. Same-store sales, sometimes referred to as organic sales, refer to sales for stores that have been open for a minimum of 12 months.
Like Advance, prompted by financial results that have failed to meet expectations, LKQ and Genuine Parts have looked to new leadership to execute a new strategic direction. LKQ has already sold its self-service segment and is actively looking for a buyer for its specialty segment so that it can focus on its alternative (recycled) parts business. Genuine Parts just announced their plans to spin-off its industrial business into a stand-alone publicly traded company so that it can focus on its core automotive parts business, which does business as NAPA. While Advance has begun to bear the fruit of its efforts, it is still too soon for LKQ and Genuine Parts. Same-store sales for these two companies are languishing at or below 2%. For AutoZone and O’Reilly Auto Parts, the darlings of the industry, same-store sales are hovering at around 5%. AutoZone, as a rule, does not publish any forward guidance with respect to same-store sales. In conjunction with their year-end earnings announcements, O’Reilly and Genuine Parts have guided same-store sales for 2026 in a range of 3% to 5%. Advance has provided a range of 0% to 2%, and LKQ is projecting at least one more year of negative same-store sales.
About the Index: The Hilco Parts Index is comprised of five publicly traded companies that distribute aftermarket parts, namely Advance Auto Parts (Advance), AutoZone, Genuine Parts (NAPA), LKQ, and O’Reilly Auto Parts (O’Reilly). Advance, AutoZone, NAPA, and O’Reilly are the four traditional parts distributors in North America with strong commercial (do-it-for-me or DIFM) and retail (do-it-yourself or DIY) programs. LKQ is largely a distributor of aftermarket collision-specific parts and recycled (used) parts.
