Does it Feel Like There are More Cars on the Road with Visible Damage?

September 8, 2025

Net sales for the five companies that comprise the Hilco Parts Index were $82.6 billion for the trailing twelve months ending with Q2 2025, a decrease of nearly 1% from the prior 12-month period.  In North America, AutoZone and O’Reilly Auto Parts (O’Reilly) continue to outperform Advance Auto Parts (Advance), Genuine Parts (NAPA), and LKQ. Advance, the owner of the Diehard brand, is in the middle of a major re-organization that saw it sell off an entire division (Worldpac) and close nearly 600 stores.  On a smaller scale, NAPA is also revisiting its business model, which historically relied heavily on independent stores to extend its footprint. For Q2 2025, Advance and NAPA reported negligible same–store sales, defined as sales from stores that have been open for more than 12 months. In contrast, same–store sales for Autozone and O’Reilly were 5.0% and 4.1% for Q2 2025, respectively. AutoZone and O’Reilly have been leveraging their sales momentum to invest in additional inventory located in super stores they refer to as “market hubs” and “mega hubs” stocked with an expanded product assortment that can service 50 – 75 stores in the immediate area. Both companies can point to data that confirms the beneficial impact on same–store sales from having more inventory located closer to the customer. 

NAPA and Advance are confident that the strategic initiatives that are a part of their restructuring will restore their sales momementum in the long term. In the interim, there is some concern that the consumer is currently under financial stress.  Sales of nondiscretionary product categories like floor mats and car wax are underperforming traditional maintenance and repair categories. Thankfully, sales of nondiscretionary parts represent only 10% of total sales. However, when the companies offer multiple price points, think “good, better, or best”, consumers are more apt to trade down. When there is no option, some consumers are opting to defer the maintenance. Up until now, the impact on consumers from tariffs has been muted. One reason is that inventory turns in the aftermarket parts business are less than 2 and less than 1 when it comes to many hard parts. Advance believes the market is in a transition phase wherein consumers are still adapting to an evolving landscape of higher prices, and they are concerned about how the consumer will respond in the back half of the year.

Of the five companies that comprise the Hilco Parts Index, LKQ is an outlier. The other four companies make up the large public companies that define the traditional market for automotive aftermarket parts. For maintenance parts like brake shoes and repair parts like gaskets, low-cost alternatives to OEMs such as Ford and General Motors are suppliers like Autozone, O’Reilly, Advance, and NAPA. When it comes to “crash” parts like fenders and headlamps, the low-cost alternative source to expensive OEMs is companies like LKQ. Given their heavy reliance on crash parts, LKQ pays very close attention to the claims statistics published by companies like CCC Intelligent Solutions. In this regard, June’s repairable claims numbers were down the most of all 3 months in the quarter, and LKQ no longer expects these declines to rebound in 2025. It’s only anecdotal evidence, but it seems like there are more cars on the road with noticeable damage, and it serves as a daily reminder that today’s consumer is wary of the future to the point it is impacting how they spend their money. But the claims data seems to bear this out. According to a recent survey, nearly 1 in 4 people have downgraded or dropped their auto insurance to free up cash, and repairable claims in Q2 2025 are down about 9% year over year. 

The Hilco Parts Index is comprised of five publicly traded companies that distribute aftermarket parts, namely Advance Auto Parts (Advance), AutoZone, Genuine Parts (NAPA), LKQ, and O’Reilly Auto Parts (O’Reilly). Advance, AutoZone, NAPA, and O’Reilly are the four traditional parts distributors in North America with strong commercial (do-it-for-me or DIFM) and retail (do-it-yourself or DIY) programs.  LKQ is largely a distributor of aftermarket collision-specific parts and recycled (used) parts.